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Chapter 1 – Macroeconomic market dynamics

Over the subsequent quarters, the rand staged a notable recovery, strengthening steadily and reaching R15.64/USD by January this year, its strongest level in roughly four years. This rebound has surprised many market participants and raised important questions about what is driving the currency and, more importantly, what it means for South African exporters, including the agricultural sector (Figure 1). Several key developments explain the rand’s recovery. Internationally, the currency has benefited from broad-based weakness in the US dollar. As global investors reassessed the outlook for the US economy and interest rates, the dollar softened against many emerging market currencies.

The rand’s reaction to market events

Figure 1

Source: Bloomberg and Absa Research, 2026

The impact of global conflict
on local margins Episode 1 With a stronger rand, the Middle Eastern conflict and higher oil and shipping costs, the South African agricultural landscape is feeling the ripple effects.

Find out what’s at stake and how to stay ahead. Navigating Middle
Eastern conflict
consequences and
rand fluctuations Watch on YouTube The shifting
climate landscape Episode 2 From droughts to downpours, climate extremes are redefining farming, including late-season frosts, irregular droughts and erratic rainfall.

Explore what the 2026/27 El Niño could mean for your agribusiness. Farming in a
world of extremes Watch on YouTube A phase of abundance for
local grain markets Episode 3 Grain markets are overflowing, but prices aren’t rising. With tougher regional competition and weather challenges, success now comes down to efficiency and margin control.

Explore the why and how behind grain and oilseed changes. Grain and oilseed
oversupply and
undercurrents Watch on YouTube It’s a high-risk, high-reward
season for livestock producers
Episode 4 Livestock prices are surging, driven by drought losses and disease outbreaks like foot-and-mouth disease that continue to squeeze supply.

What’s next for livestock sector recovery and biosecurity? Find out now! Disease,
disruption and the
price of protein Watch on YouTube Why SA’s high-value
crops are booming Episode 5 Global citrus shortages and booming avocado exports are creating new opportunities for South African growers.

Explore the impact of a stronger rand and limited market access on SA’s high-value exports. Global demand,
local pressure Watch on YouTube What lower costs can
mean for your season Episode 6 While easing input costs offer much-needed relief to producers, volatile crops like potatoes and tomatoes, coupled with ongoing weather and pest risks, mean vegetable sector stability is far from guaranteed.

Get the latest vegetable market insights. Vegetable
production
prices and
market volatility Watch on YouTube

Plan for the future with insights by agri-industry experts. To learn more,
download the 2026 Autumn Edition.