What to expect from the AgriTrends Autumn Edition
South African agriculture enters 2026 following a year defined by shifting conditions and mixed pressures. In 2025, global trade disruptions, shifting trade flows, heightened economic uncertainty and recurring local animal disease outbreaks reshaped the sector’s operating environment. Climate variability also remained influential, although improved summer rainfall helped stabilise production and support market activity. These developments allowed agribusinesses to operate with cautious optimism, supported by stronger production outcomes and more informed decision‑making. Looking ahead, 2026 unfolds against a landscape where improved production conditions offer a firmer base, yet escalating geopolitical tensions and rising input costs continue to introduce uncertainty. This combination places renewed emphasis on strategic planning, disciplined risk management and resilient partnerships across the value chain. Given these dynamics, the outlook for 2026 centres on maintaining competitiveness while adapting to global and domestic pressures. This edition of AgriTrends aims to contextualise these factors and encourage constructive, forward‑looking industry dialogue that supports the sector’s continued growth and competitiveness.
A macroeconomic view on exchange rate dynamics and geopolitical risks
South Africa’s currency landscape is shifting, with rand movements shaped by changing valuations, softer market momentum and rising global uncertainty. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East are driving up fuel, freight and input costs, tightening margins for agricultural exporters. Chapter 1 offers a view of how currency dynamics and geopolitical risks intersect, and how they influence trade conditions and operating environments, specific to the agricultural sector.
Climate change dynamics
Climate change is actively reshaping South Africa’s farming landscape. In chapter 2, we explore how rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns and the anticipated 2026/27 El Niño event are set to influence key aspects of agriculture, from crop performance to livestock resilience, offering a high‑level glimpse into climate dynamics like ENSO cycles and emerging seasonal risks.
Grain and oilseed market dynamics
Global grains and oilseeds markets are currently characterised by strong production and steady but subdued demand, keeping international prices under pressure. South Africa reflects this global trend, entering the new marketing season with ample supplies following favourable weather and a strong rebound in summer crops. Local maize and soybean output remains volatile due to weather but is expected to stay above domestic consumption needs, while wheat production continues to fluctuate with Western Cape rainfall patterns. Regional markets across Southern and Eastern Africa are also well supplied, reducing import demand and keeping South African white maize prices close to export parity. These factors collectively frame a market defined by stability and competitive regional dynamics. The grains and oilseed chapter explores these themes in full detail.
Livestock market dynamics
Livestock markets strengthened across beef, sheep, pork and poultry as drought‑induced herd losses and widespread disease outbreaks tightened supply throughout 2025–2026. Beef prices benefited from the shift toward an FMD‑free‑with‑vaccination approach, while reduced Oceania output supported firmer lamb and mutton values. Pork and poultry prices also climbed on the back of recurring biosecurity shocks. Although conditions are stabilising, prices across proteins are expected to remain elevated. The livestock chapter explores these themes in full detail.
High-value export industry market dynamics
The high‑value export industry enters 2026 shaped by shifting global conditions, with climate variability emerging as a consistent thread influencing production across citrus, pome fruit and avocados. Despite these pressures, global market shifts are creating openings with citrus shaped by evolving trade conditions, pome fruit recalibrating after weather‑driven disruptions and avocados navigating rising Southern Hemisphere competitiveness in the EU/UK market. Together, these dynamics highlight a sector adjusting under both climate and market pressures.
Vegetable market dynamics
Chapter 6 explores South Africa’s shifting vegetable‑industry cost landscape, showing how easing input prices and volatile weather shaped 2025 market outcomes. Fertiliser and fuel declines softened the agricultural PPI and eased producer pressure, but climatic instability, especially in Limpopo, offset these gains. Potatoes saw major supply swings as heavy rainfall delayed harvests and pushed prices to their lowest since 2022. Tomatoes also faced erratic weather and pest pressure. Overall, the chapter shows how temporary cost relief is repeatedly challenged by climate‑driven disruptions.
Plan for the future with insights by agri-industry experts. To learn more, download the 2026 Autumn Edition.