Chapter 4 – High-value export industry market dynamics
In 2024, long-term export crops saw a broad-based recovery in profitability, driven by various factors. However, challenges still persisted, with the weather shifting from El Niño to La Niña. In 2025, competition from South American fruit exports, such as avocados and table grapes, is increasing with a rebound in weather conditions. Over the medium term, additional competition is likely to come from non-traditional competitors such as China and India. An example of China moving from a net importer to a net exporter of table grapes is a case in point.
Chinese table grape trade balance over time
Figure 4
Source: USDA FAS, 2025
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