Chapter 2 – Climate change dynamics
South Africa enters the 2026/27 summer production season with one of its strongest hydrological positions in recent years. National dam levels stood at 95.5% in August 2026, compared with just 55.0% during the 2016 drought cycle, while soil moisture reserves remain exceptionally favourable following two consecutive seasons of good rainfall. Although these conditions provide an important buffer against climate-related risks, regional differences remain evident and production outcomes will ultimately depend on rainfall timing and distribution throughout the season.
Average dam levels in % for South Africa
Figure 2
Source: Department of Water and Sanitation, Absa AgriBusiness, 2026
Plan for the future with insights by agri-industry experts. To learn more,
download the 2026 Spring Edition.