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Chapter 2 – Climate change dynamics

South Africa’s climate system has displayed an atypical ENSO cycle since 2020, including one El Niño event, two moderate-to-strong La Niñas and two weak La Niñas. These patterns have shaped recent production outcomes and set the stage for the coming season. Figure 2 provides historical ENSO distribution context, showing the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and neutral phases over time.

Historical distribution of El Niño, La Niña and neutral phases

Figure 2

Source: Johan van der Berg, 2026

The impact of global conflict
on local margins Episode 1 With a stronger rand, the Middle Eastern conflict and higher oil and shipping costs, the South African agricultural landscape is feeling the ripple effects.

Find out what’s at stake and how to stay ahead. Navigating Middle
Eastern conflict
consequences and
rand fluctuations Watch on YouTube The shifting
climate landscape Episode 2 From droughts to downpours, climate extremes are redefining farming, including late-season frosts, irregular droughts and erratic rainfall.

Explore what the 2026/27 El Niño could mean for your agribusiness. Farming in a
world of extremes Watch on YouTube A phase of abundance for
local grain markets Episode 3 Grain markets are overflowing, but prices aren’t rising. With tougher regional competition and weather challenges, success now comes down to efficiency and margin control.

Explore the why and how behind grain and oilseed changes. Grain and oilseed
oversupply and
undercurrents Watch on YouTube It’s a high-risk, high-reward
season for livestock producers
Episode 4 Livestock prices are surging, driven by drought losses and disease outbreaks like foot-and-mouth disease that continue to squeeze supply.

What’s next for livestock sector recovery and biosecurity? Find out now! Disease,
disruption and the
price of protein Watch on YouTube Why SA’s high-value
crops are booming Episode 5 Global citrus shortages and booming avocado exports are creating new opportunities for South African growers.

Explore the impact of a stronger rand and limited market access on SA’s high-value exports. Global demand,
local pressure Watch on YouTube What lower costs can
mean for your season Episode 6 While easing input costs offer much-needed relief to producers, volatile crops like potatoes and tomatoes, coupled with ongoing weather and pest risks, mean vegetable sector stability is far from guaranteed.

Get the latest vegetable market insights. Vegetable
production
prices and
market volatility Watch on YouTube

Plan for the future with insights by agri-industry experts. To learn more,
download the 2026 Autumn Edition.